July 23, 2005 08:00 AM UTC

Tom Tancredo Eyes the West Wing

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• by: Colorado Pols

We have speculated quite a bit about what a Tom Tancredo bid for the White House in 2008 might mean for the Republican Party nationally as it seeks support among newly-powerful minority voting blocs.

An AP story yesterday, printed nationally and immediately following this week’s “Nuke Mecca” controversy, is sure to ramp up that discussion on Monday.

Tancredo has already visited New Hampshire and Iowa this year, and says he found a welcome audience among voters who are fed up with the nation’s immigration policies, including proposals by President Bush.

“Unless I misread the political tea leaves, there is a great deal of support for what I say,” Tancredo said.

More to the point,

Unlike 2002, when the GOP tried to distance itself from Tancredo amid concern he could cost them Hispanic votes, the national party is backing the four-term congressman’s re-election bid in the heavily Republican suburbs of southern Denver. So far, there is no Democratic challenger for the 2006 race.

Experts say Tancredo has no chance at the White House, but like Ross Perot’s campaign on a balanced budget in 1992, he has found an issue that could force other Republicans to treat immigration as a major issue.

DNC Chairman Howard Dean, during his recent stop in Denver, predicted as muchthough his analysis of the issue portrayed it as suicidal for a Party trying to purge the racially-divisive “Southern Strategy” from its legacy.

However, those quick to denounce Tancredo as a purveyor of fringe rhetoric might do well to pay attention to the Comprehensive Enforcement and Immigration Reform Act of 2005, introduced this week by Senators John Kyl (R-AZ) and John Cornyn (R-TX). It calls for every illegal immigrant in the United States to leave the country in order to apply for guest worker status. The bill is a harsh retort to the competing Kennedy-McCain immigration reform that many conservatives have labeled “mass amnesty,” and is much closer to the position of Tancredo’s rapidly-growing Immigration Reform Caucus.

With that in mind, here are the questions:

1) Will Tancredo’s star rise in the Republican Party? Do you agree that Tancredo has “no chance” at a meaningful run for the Presidency?

2) Can all this national exposure possibly hurt him in CD-6? The general consensus on this question is “no.”

3) Will Tancredo’s heightened profile move other Colorado politicians, especially candidates seeking higher office, to a tougher position on illegal immigration? With the answer to this question increasingly self-evident, what are the implications?

4) Is Tancredo entirely lucid about what he’s doing? Is he being realistic about his chances, and getting exactly what he wants by goading the Party toward his core issue? The answer to that question is likely to surprise the “Tancredo haters.”